Day: November 3, 2013

The Arab-Israeli Peace Process Is Over. Enter the Era of Chaos.

Standard

The Arab-Israeli Peace Process Is Over. Enter the Era of Chaos.

The theater of the peace process was key to U.S. hegemony in the Middle East—and without the process, there will be no peace

A Palestinian man inspects an olive tree after an Israeli air strike on Oct. 28, 2013, in the northern Gaza Strip. (Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images)
Related Content

The Mideast Crack-Up

Robert Worth, David Goldman, Edward Luttwak, Amos Harel, Nathan Thrall, and Lee Smith on the new Arab map

Saudis’ Proxy War Against Iran

Ethnic minorities, backed by neighboring Arab countries, are ramping up assaults against the regime in Tehran

Linked In

Why do Arab governments—and the U.S.—insist the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is at the heart of all the Mideast’s problems?

This past weekend the White House clarified yet again what’s been apparent to everyone in the Middle East for quite a while now: The United States wants out, for real. “There’s a whole world out there,” National Security Adviser Susan Rice told the New York Times, “and we’ve got interests and opportunities in that whole world.”

To judge by the president’s decision making, Egypt and Syria apparently are no longer important parts of that world, nor is the shakeout from the Arab Spring, or preserving Washington’s special relationship with the Saudi oil kingdom, or other familiar features of American Middle East policy, like democracy promotion, which have been taken for granted by locals and the rest of the world alike. What matters seems to be getting out of the region faster, by making a snap deal with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani over Tehran’s nuclear program. But yeah, administration sources told theTimes almost as an afterthought, we still care about the peace process.

The problem is that a deal with Iran, when taken together with a U.S. withdrawal from the region, means the end of the peace process. As an Israeli official visiting Washington told me last week, one result of the administration’s minimalist regional profile is that the Arab allies of the United States—from Jordan and Egypt to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council states—will no longer enjoy the luxury of being able to count on the United States to pursue and protect their national interests, which means that they’ll have to do it themselves in a region where, as President Barack Obama said in his speech at the U.N. General Assembly meeting last month, the leaders “avoid addressing difficult problems themselves.”

What that means is that Washington’s Arab partners who are most concerned about Iran, like Saudi Arabia, now have a choice: They can defend themselves with all the weaponry the American defense industry has sold them over the years—or they can get someone else to do it. If most Arab regimes never really cared that much for the Palestinians in the first place, they clearly had even less use for the Israelis. But in the wake of a bad American deal with Rouhani, the Israelis may come in quite handy, as the only local power capable of standing up to a nuclear-armed Iran or stopping the Iranian nuclear program in its tracks.

There is plenty of evidence that the Gulf Cooperation Council states have already reached the conclusion that using the Israeli air force to fight their wars may be no more inherently loathsome—and a good deal cheaper—than relying on the unreliable Americans. Coordination between Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council states is reportedly higher than it’s ever been before. And military and security relations between Jerusalem and Egypt’s ruling military junta are excellent, as both countries face mutual foes like Hamas in Gaza and local franchises of al-Qaida in Sinai.

What’s clear amidst all this traffic is that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is presently the least important and least bloody conflict in the region, after the Syrian civil war, the Libyan civil war, Iraq’s violent partition, Egypt’s military crack-down, etc. From the point of view of national realpolitik, the only people who should be thinking long and hard about the end of the Arab-Israeli peace process are American policymakers.

Maybe it’s good news then that the lake of crocodile tears shed for 80 years over the Palestinian cause is about to evaporate into the thin desert air because the United States is leaving, and the Arab regimes obviously have more important things to worry about now—like their own security and survival. Yet from an American standpoint the end of the peace process is unfortunate—and not because it was ever likely to bring about peace between Arabs and Israelis, or usher in a reign of good feeling and peaceful relations across the Middle East.

* * *

Since Henry Kissinger first engineered the Arab-Israeli peace talks strategy in the wake of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, many American policymakers have forgotten, or perhaps never understood, that peace talks were primarily a device to advance American interests—a regional puppet show with Washington pulling the strings. With overwhelming political, diplomatic, and (most important) military support for Israel, Washington turned Jerusalem into a dependent client. It was also an invitation to the Arabs who, having despaired of any hope of defeating Israel in war, were forced to come to Washington on bended knee to secure concessions—like promises of withdrawals—from the Jewish state.

The point of the peace process, therefore, was to turn Israelis and Arabs alike into servants of Washington, which succeeded in ejecting the Soviets as the United States became the ruling hegemon of the Middle East—home to a very large percentage of the world’s supply of oil. In turn, its ability to guarantee the security and safe transit of the world’s oil supply made the United States not only the de facto ruler of the Middle East, but also the most important power on the planet, even in the eyes of its potential rivals, like the Chinese.

U.S. policymakers lost the thread of this effective decades-long regional strategy when the Cold War ended. In the absence of the familiar global Soviet threat, Americans were easily overwhelmed by cries for a final peace deal that was arguably never in the American interest—since the perpetuation of the conflict by kicking the can down the road forever was the key to keeping both the Arabs and the Israelis firmly in the American fold. American policymakers and analysts who believed in what I’ve called “hard linkage” argued that because the conflict really did motivate the policies of regional rulers, solving the crisis would make all the region’s other problems go away. Advocates of “soft linkage” meanwhile argued that progress on the peace process would make American partners in the Middle East more willing to cooperate on matters of greater U.S. national interest, like for instance, the Iranian nuclear issue.

Related articles

Economics alone won’t halt growing inequality

Standard

Economics alone won’t halt growing inequality

Dealing with inequality is always carried out by collective action by political parties and/or trade unions, which seek to change the rules of the game.

A seminar on inequality in Israel and the world at the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel was fascinating. Two important conclusions on how to deal with Israel’s inequality and poverty emerged from the discussions. First, inequality in Israel is substantial by every possible criteria compared with the industrialized world, even when discounting the Arab and haredi (ultra-orthodox) communities, as many in Israel propose. Second, inequality is growing, especially as the middle class in Israel and other countries is squeezed.Since most of the seminar’s speakers were economists, they set the tone, analysis of the factors causing the situation, and how to deal with it with the tools they are familiar with. In their opinion, the erosion of the middle class is caused by a combination of technological changes, deepening globalization, which is eroding the industrial base in many countries, and tax structures that benefit the rich.The problem, which the economists are well aware of, is that they are using the terminology of their student days. Amazingly, the economists always forget that economic policy is derived from political decisions and political movements. It is possible to declare, as was declared at the seminar, that dealing with the challenging problem of inequality requires raising the marginal tax rate and increasing social spending. This would be correct, but it’s irrelevant so long as there is no analysis of the powers that could promote such a measure and of the powers that would oppose it. It might be possible to ignore the politics when the study of basic economic models is the subject, but when applied analysis is the subject, politics is always present.

The abovementioned comment sounds obvious, until we remember that the public debate over inequality in Israel tends to blame inequality and poverty on “special interests” in the economy. According to this thesis, were the market allowed to operate under the principles of “sophisticated competition”, a large part of the problem of inequality and poverty would be solved. But the special interests have always been and always will be present, and the debate should be diverted into an imaginary world that exists only in textbooks.

In the real world, dealing with inequality and poverty cannot be based on creating the conditions of sophisticated competition, where the individual can buy a house for the lowest price at a supermarket. In reality, there will always be lobbies and groups seeking to promote their interests. In such a world, dealing with inequality is always carried out by collective action by political parties and/or trade unions, which seek to change the rules of the game and access to resources.

The people who want to see a significant drop in the inequality that has been created in the labor market should support the wave of unionization, because in the real world, there is virtually no other instrument for preventing huge salary differentials.

Turning skilled workers into unskilled

This point is also important in view of the emphasis that many people in Israel and other countries place on education. This issue, which had a prominent place in the Taub Center seminar, is frequently made into the ultimate solution for social ills. But data presented at the seminar indicate how a broad swathe of skilled workers is eroding. Skilled workers are turning into unskilled workers; in other words, it is possible to replace a skilled worker with a less skilled one.

In fact, the roots of the current wave of unionization are found in this process of turning skilled workers into unskilled workers. This collective conduct is reflected in the establishment of unions, negotiations on collective labor contracts, and the raising of demands for improved job conditions in the name of the workers’ collective, is completely rational in a world without privacy, where everyone is alone, and where the real power to ensure the workers’ future and/or that of their children is found.

It would therefore be better were words and deeds focused on promoting these efforts, in which people connect with each other and act collectively to advance their interests without wasting time waiting for the Messiah of the most sophisticated competition.

Related articles

Big Data: The Mega-Trend That Will Impact All Our Lives

Standard

Big Data: The Mega-Trend That Will Impact All Our Lives

inShare3,038

There are some things that are so big that they have implications for everyone’s life, whether we want it or not. And Big Data is one of those mega trends that will impact everyone in one way or another. The name (which by the way I don’t like) might sound a bit techie or boring but believe me, it is not. With this post I want to explain what’s behind this mega buzzword and outline why it will impact everyone.

The basic idea behind the phrase ‘Big Data’ is that everything we do in our lives is (or will soon) leave a digital trace (or data), which we (and others) can use and analyze. The advances in capturing and analyzing big data allow us to decode human DNA in minutes, find cures for cancer, accurately predict human behavior, foil terrorist attacks, pinpoint marketing efforts, prevent diseases and so much more. And like most things, it can be used for good or evil, but more on that later.

Basically, big data refers to our ability to collect and analyze the vast amounts of data we are now generating in the world. The ability to harness the ever-expanding amounts of data is completely transforming our ability to understand the world and everything within it. You might ask: So what is new here? Haven’t companies and organizations captured and analyzed data for a long time? Yes, but there are two things that are changing at the moment and are making the phenomenon of ‘big data’ real:

  • The rate at which we are generating new data is frightening – I call this the ‘datafication’ of our world.
  • Our ability to analyze large and complex forms of data has been transformed in recent years.

The Complete Datafication of Our World

All activities (human or otherwise) will soon leave a digital trace (which can be a scary thought):

  • We increasingly leave digital records of our conversations: Emails are stored in corporate systems, our social media up-dates are filed and phone conversations are digitalized and stored.
  • More and more of our activities are digitally recorded: Most things we do in our digitalized world leave a data trail. For example, our bowser logs what we are searching for and what websites we visit, websites log how we click through them, as well as what and when we buy, share or like something. When we read digital books or listen to digital music the devices will collect (and share) data on what we are reading and listening to and how often we do so. And when we make payments using credit or payment cards the transactions are logged.
  • Most photos and videos are now digitally captured and stored. Just think of the millions of hours of CCTV footage captured every day. In addition, we take more videos on our smart 
phones and digital cameras leading to around 100 hours of videos being up-loaded to YouTube every minute and something like 200,000 photos added to Facebook every 60 seconds.
  • We generate data using the ever-growing amounts of smart devices and sensors: Our smart phones track the location of where we are and how fast we are moving, there are sensors in our oceans to track temperatures and currents, there are sensors in our cars that monitor our driving, there are sensors on packaging and pallets that track goods as they are shipped along supply chains. Smart watches, Google Glass and pedometers collect data. For example I wear an Up band that tells me how many steps I have taken, the calories I have burnt each day as well as how well I have slept each night, etc. Many devices are now internet-enabled so that they self-generate and share data. Smart TVs and set-top-boxes, for example, are able to track what you are watching, for how long and even detect how many people sit in front of the TV.

I am sure you are getting the point. The volume of data is growing at a freighting rate. Google’s executive chairman Eric Schmidt brings it to a point: “From the dawn of civilization until 2003, humankind generated five exabytes of data. Now we produce five exabytes every two days…and the pace is accelerating.”

So yes, we are generating unimaginable amounts of data. The other thing that has changed is that are now able to analyse more complex types of data such as digital phone records of conversations, video and photo images and conversation. In the world of ‘Big Data’ we talk about the 4 Vs that characterize big data:

  • Volume – the vast amounts of data generated every second
  • Velocity – the speed at which new data is generated and moves around (credit card fraud detection is a good example where millions of transactions are checked for unusual patterns in almost real time)
  • Variety – the increasingly different types of data (from financial data to social media feeds, from photos to sensor data, from video capture to voice recordings)
  • Veracity – the messiness of the data (just think of Twitter posts with hash tags, abbreviations, typos and colloquial speech)

So, we have a lot more data than ever before, in more complex formats, that are often fast moving and of varying quality – why would that change the world? The difference is that we now have tools that allow us to analyze vast amounts of data by breaking the task of processing very large data sets down into smaller tasks that are run in parallel using a large cluster of computers. Here are some real-life examples of how big data is used today:

  • The FBI is combining data from social media, CCTV cameras, phone calls and texts to track down criminals and predict the next terrorist attack.
  • Supermarkets are combining their loyalty card data with social media information to detect and leverage changing buying patterns. For example, it is easy for retailers to predict that a woman is pregnant simply based on the changing buying patterns. This allows them to target pregnant women with promotions for baby related goods.
  • Facebook is using face recognition tools to compare the photos you have up-loaded with those of others to find potential friends of yours (see my post on how Facebook is exploiting your private information using big data tools).
  • Politicians are using social media analytics to determine where they have to campaign the hardest to win the next election.
  • Video analytics and sensor data of Baseball or Football games is used to improve performance of players and teams. For example, you can now buy a baseball with over 200 sensors in it that will give you detailed feedback on how to improve your game.
  • Artists like Lady Gaga are using data of our listening preferences and sequences to determine the most popular playlist for her live gigs.
  • Google’s self-driving car is analyzing a gigantic amount of data from sensor and cameras in real time to stay on the road safely.
  • The GPS information on where our phone is and how fast it is moving is now used to provide live traffic up-dates.
  • Companies are using sentiment analysis of Facebook and Twitter posts to determine and predict sales volume and brand equity.
  • A hospital unit that looks after premature and sick babies is generating a live steam of every heartbeat. It then analyses the data to identify patterns. Based on the analysis the system can now detect infections 24hrs before the baby would show any visible symptoms, which allows early intervention and treatment.

Final Thought

Finally, no discussion about Big Data could be complete without mentioning the increasing concerns about privacy. Many concerns have been expressed about how retailers, credit card companies, search engine providers and mail or social media companies use our private information. However, the privacy concerns around big data started to explode with the revelations by Edward Snowden on how the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) collects and analyses big data including the phone records and social media activities of millions of Americans. But because this is another massive issue in its own right I will address this in a future post.

As always, please let me know your thoughts on the topic. Do you find it frightening or exciting? Do you see business opportunities or ‘Big Brother’?

——————-

Bernard Marr is a best-selling business author and enterprise performance expert. He helps companies understand big data and works with executive teams to develop big data strategies. Make sure you click ‘Follow’ if you would like to hear more from Bernard Marr in the future and feel free to also connect via Twitter, Facebook and The Advanced Performance Institute

Other recent posts by Bernard Marr:

Bernard Marr’s book ‘The Intelligent Company‘ outlines how companies can better leverage the data available to them today to improve decision-making and generate a competitive advantage.

You can read a free sample chapter here.

Stephen Darori













    

  • Anita Dalrymple

    Anita Dalrymple
    

    Quality Engineer and Industrial Statistician
    

    “1984” was a book by George Orwell 35 years before it was an Apple advertisement. Isaac Asimov wrote “I, Robot” 18 years before Will Smith was born. Asimov also wrote the amazing “Foundation” series. All of these stories include the theme of how governments will control us with the trace we make. This may sound a little “conspiracy theory” to the very young or uninformed, but the world has changed, and our privacy is a thing of the past. We readily give up the remnants for tokens and convenience (think free apps). In history, we have seen this privacy trade with the Nazis, the Communists, and with other extremists. For the most part, these groups only had “Little Data.” Now we know just about every government on earth has access to “Big Data.” And in the words of George Santayana, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Maybe we should think about the value of what we get for what we have to give.
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    4 Replies
    

    

    

      

    • Dave F.

      Dave F.
      

      Telemarketing Executive at Version One Ltd
      

      I think it’s also worth mentioning, Anita, that Asimov’s “I, Robot”, doesn’t mention governments in it – not even once. 😉
      

      


      1 month ago
      

      


      

      • 

    • Nicolas Richard

      Nicolas Richard
      

      Materials Management
      

      London’s bins officially tracking your smartphone location sounds like a good start for “conspiracy theory”!
      

      


      2 months ago
      

      

      

      • 

    • Show More
      • 

    

    

    

    

    • 

  • Sam Vella

    Sam Vella
    

    Freelance Business Intelligence Architect and Developer
    

    My Big Data processors indicate we are only 6 months away from “The Trough of Disillusionment”
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    1 Reply
    

    

    

      

    • Dave F.

      Dave F.
      

      Telemarketing Executive at Version One Ltd
      

      Love it. 😉 Thanks, Sam, some sanity in this thread at last. 😉
      

      


      2 months ago
      

      


      

      • 

    

    

    

    

    • 

  • Susha Y. Perminova

    Susha Y. Perminova
    

    Software Sales Specialist at Halo Software LLC
    

    This is very frightening, but what oi find even more frightening is that we are degradating as human beings by constantly being attached to our phones,TV’s and Computer monitors!
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    1 Reply
    

    

    

      

    • James Hunt

      James Hunt
      

      Academic Advisor at University of South Alabama
      

      Yes, I agree with you. But we have to remember that ultimately we are in control. Facebook’s market value is estimated at $100 billion. But that isn’t stable. It’s not real. If the younger generation decided not to use Facebook, or if the public decided to stop using it, the value would be zero. I work with college students and believe me when I say that many of them are not using it. They may have an account for occasional use, but most prefer Twitter. I always hear comments like “Facebook is for my parents”. I think as more consumers are educated about privacy issues, the tide will turn. What do you think?
      

      


      2 months ago
      

      


      

      • 

    

    

    

    

    • 

  • Paul H Mclean

    Paul H Mclean
    

    Director of Success at A Brand New Future
    

    …I think there will be a market for ‘little data’ which actively minimizes your digital footprint to help some of your world yours alone…knowing when a woman is pregnant and targetting her with product placements is really extreme – you really do get a sense of a concerted drive for society to be force-ably pushed onto the digital nipple whether they like it or not in an effort to eliminate some of the ‘known unknowns’ of our personal lives for the specific benefit of the big business and governmental worlds…big data may become the point that future generations may come reflect upon as the moment when the world of the individual became nothing but an update on someones screen somewhere in the world…
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    

    

    • 

  • Sumit Batra

    Sumit Batra
    

    Project Manager at Accenture
    

    Big data is the biggest challenge that customers are struggling with. What futuristic technologies can help create marketable customer intelligence from the big data?
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    7 Replies
    

    

    

      

    • Princess Cox, MBA, PMP

      Princess Cox, MBA, PMP
      

      Digital Marketing & CRM Professional
      

      @ Dave Dave, when it comes to Mexx, Zara, & what is/isn’t BigData please blame my memory and lack of detail, not the case. Because one of these two deserves their proper credit for working with what at that time was BigData (datasets so large & queries so complex the standard systems of that period could not process them) ahead of their time. They also deserve credit for using data related to customer behavior and real-time employee insights to drive everything from real-time stock control (as you mentioned) to promotions and pricing. And when we’re talking about “stock control”…we’re not referring to 30 yellow sweaters. We are talking about nearly a decade ago, being able to adjust an entire promotional strategy and supporting distribution nearly overnight because you could analyze the insights and opinions of 3,000 retail associates (if memory serves) against all purchasing trends and related customer data. I understand that nowadays you may just call that good stock control but in that time and context it was impressive in the world of customer insight. Your comment seems to stem from a clear opinion on what BigData is/isn’t. I’m curious to hear your perspective.
      

      


      2 months ago
      

      


      

      • 

    • Princess Cox, MBA, PMP

      Princess Cox, MBA, PMP
      

      Digital Marketing & CRM Professional
      

      @ Sumit – Thank you for the clarification. In that context, I had to smile and say touche when I read the words “fictional sci-fi” in your reply as I also posted in this forum on the implications for Big Data of futuristic technologies built around FACS microexpression recognition and science fiction at the level of the fictional show “Caprica” coming to life within 20years. Nonetheless, I would still love to see more discussion on the opportunities of today…how practitioners can create the most value for clients that dream in decades, strategize in years, but report in quarters. Because the statistics say we’re not doing that. They say less than 50% of clients would rate Big Data projects a success and technology projects in general, much worse. As you stated in your reply, there are already organisations (some of them my clients) churning Big Data into marketable customer intelligence. In my experience, these organisations have a strong strategic objective, a detailed roadmap, and a set of very specific insights they need to mine in order to drive the customer relationship. However, the majority of clients I meet have the needed tools but are still saying “where do I start? I know that no one wins points in a consultancy by telling the client “you don’t need an upgrade or to integrate the latest accelerators – you need to start asking the right questions and train your people to think differently about the answers”…but that often is the solution that delivers the most value for our clients and creates the best long-term relationship. So yes, I respect your forward-thinking and the topic – and I’d love to know your thoughts on something like micro-expression recognition & Big Data. I would just also love to see more brainstorming in this forum on increasing our clients’ success in gaining marketable customer intelligence from the Big Data possibilities that we already have…because that’s my clients’ pain today. Thanks for taking the time to share your perspective and feedback.
      

      


      2 months ago
      

      


      

      • 

    • Show More
      • 

    

    

    

    

    • 

  • Evan Quinn

    Evan Quinn 2nd
    

    Research Director, Information Management at EMA
    

    August 27, 2013 and Bernard discovers Big Data and the 3Vs + 1. Uh, a little late, doncha think? I noticed Rob Enderle discovered big data the other week too. Thought leadership in the rearview mirror. Hey, don’t forget about visualization and value – 6Vs actually.
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    

    

    • 

  • Catherine Kargas

    Catherine Kargas 2nd
    

    Business Strategist, Vice President at MARCON, Chair of Electric Mobility Canada, EMC Autonomous Vehicle Chair
    

    Data has become an incredibly valuable commodity
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    1 Reply
    

    

    

      

    • Dave F.

      Dave F.
      

      Telemarketing Executive at Version One Ltd
      

      As an ex database IT specialist, Catherine, data has been an incredibly valuable commodity for many, many, many years.
      

      


      2 months ago
      

      


      

      • 

    

    

    

    

    • 

  • Princess Cox, MBA, PMP

    Princess Cox, MBA, PMP
    

    Digital Marketing & CRM Professional
    

    Nice. A simple way of telling an intricate story. And yet…this isn’t the end of the story. The data we’re looking at right now is all 2D. What happens when we’ve effectively taught computers the 5 senses and commercialized the applications? Or a closer development, FACS (facial action coding systems – recognition of the emotions that can be identified clearly through involuntary micro-expressions / muscle movements on your face) on your SmartPhone browser telling marketers what you think of their ads in real-time? The dimensions will be indescribably complex…like the human brain. With the right analytics, behavioral scientists, and enough processing power you could even create a model of an entire human life / personality. It’s like “Caprica” walking off the TV screen and into the real-world.
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    3 Replies
    

    

    


    

    

    

    • 

  • Dave Williams

    Dave Williams
    

    Senior Systems Engineer at Control Systems Laboratories, LLC
    

    In asking what “I” see can probably be summed up as “insufficient data”. What do I mean by insufficient data? Two things, the old school reference to robotic sci-fi’s that referenced responses to natural language queries posited to a machine. I don’t remember whether it was Spook or not. We can already see that the NSA, having more than sufficient data (no one can accuse them of “under-sampling”) could not isolate the Boston bombing. What is troubling is the the rationale used to collect and amass this “Big Data” does not comport with the performance. Besides the socio-political and psychological effects of mass surveillance (either state or corporate based) has the unknown affect on free peoples. Behaviors tend to conform to the data, not the other way around. To me, this produce “insufficient results” and we rarely understand the downside of technologies because of a tendency to have blind faith in technology. There was a great thesis out of Oxford University that covered this topic (masters/PhD level treatment). Another piece of work, it was a science and technology policy research project that looked at the difference between formalism in science, the utility of that science in policy, and the disconnect between what the science says and what policy produces,. Over 800 pages, read it cover to cover in one day–it was extremely compelling. My own data, memory, is failing me–cannot remember the exact title.
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    1 Reply
    

    

    

      

    • Dave F.

      Dave F.
      

      Telemarketing Executive at Version One Ltd
      

      Well said, Dave. You cannot “predict the unpredictable” and a blind faith in technology is …. worthless.
      

      


      2 months ago
      

      

      

      • 

    

    

    

    

    • 

  • Rajesh Pillai

    Rajesh Pillai
    

    Program Manager at Confident Governance
    

    BIG DATA : I think it is an exciting opportunity to learn more about the physiological behaviour of the human being. All the data that has been collected refers everything about a human behaviour, think about the predications that we can make by analyzing the “BIG DATA”. I am shocked / surprised to see the quantity of data that has been generated and monitored every second. It does bother me about the privacy but more then that I am thinking of the benefits that we can reap in future with this data. My eyes brows touching each other think about “do we really have right tools to analyse such enormous data?”
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    

    

    • 

  • Mark Vescio

    Mark Vescio
    

    CEO of MVC, Inc. & iScan Online Consultant
    

    Well Susha, stop doing it☆
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    

    

    • 

  • Mauricio Monteiro Braga

    Mauricio Monteiro Braga
    

    IT Architect Specialist at Lojas Renner
    

    From the point of view of each one: be carefull about the data you are producing. Regarding the companies, this premise is even more stronger. For some companies, complexity of each technological stack versus the pursuit of optimization of the OPEX, might transform cloud computing in a ‘good’ place for IT infrastructure, and also to big data in a ‘sustainable step’. And, here most companies are faced with: the everlasting cycle of trade-offs (information security, technical architecture, enterprise architecture, etc.). The fact is that the ‘datafication’ is happing all the time and there are several ‘actors’ that, talking politically, they might be able to use a big data platform to take advantages. So, the companies should be so stuck in the trade-offs and paradigms?
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    

    

    • 

  • Yann Le Meur

    Yann Le Meur
    

    International HR student at INSEEC Paris
    

    I don’t know how one can say here it’s frightening: If you’re scared, log off!
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    

    1 Reply
    

    

    

      

    • Pat Jessee

      Pat Jessee
      

      Dancing Brush Arts Improv
      

      new is most often viewed as frightening-but it does’nt last lolng if you have noticed.
      

      


      2 months ago
      

      


      

      • 

    

    

    

    

    • 

  • Teral McDowell

    Teral McDowell
    

    Realtor, Keller Williams Central
    

    Big data…our digital footprint.
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    

    

    • 

  • Rony Neogy

    Rony Neogy
    

    Senior Manager Operation – Strategy, Solutioning,Corporate Development & Partner Management
    

    data-mining,data-research and data-result-life is full of data and its implication.yes it impacts,do makes difference.
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    

    

    • 

  • Scott Wagers

    Scott Wagers
    

    Helping researchers get more funding and find more time by optimizing their gain from collaboration.
    

    Nice post on a lightening rod topic. Like any valuable technology Big Data is a double edged sword. Every year lots of houses, buildings, and forests burn down does this mean we should stop using fire? You could almost say the more useful something is, the more potentially dangerous it is. Our growing ability to analyze and use Big Data is driving the degree to which companies and academia collaborate. Big Data in translational research is often not all that big in terms of volume, rather it is big in terms of complexity. The Pharmaceutical industry is facing a big challenge in that many drugs fail in the last phases of development. There is now a lot of interest in collaborating to combine and analyze data sets to facilitate earlier prediction of which drugs will be successful. See http://www.etriks.org for examples of what I mean.
    

    


    2 months ago
    

    


    

    

    • 

  • Thomas Everchild

    Thomas Everchild
    

    Illustrator, Writer, Director
    

    Did you know that the vast majority of Scientists no longer believe the standard model is applicable? One can also float controversial opinions in posts and analyse the sentiments in the comments. The notion of Big Data accurately predicting behaviour does not mean that the prediction is accurate. Governments and corporations will act on what they are persuaded to believe is accurate by the advisers who are ‘on trend’. Much of the data collected is ‘follower data’, votes for favourite films, books, songs are skewed because voters go along with the crowd. A standard method of making the population believe something is true is simply to use the media to tell them that many others already believe it. Fake the results of big data to get what you want. Pattern recognition has some value, but it won’t be long before there are softwares that claim to hide or confuse your datawake ™. Like firewalls in reverse. Facial recognition on Facebook has a way to go. I was recently presented with a photograph of a ‘friend’ to identify as part of a security measure, it was a picture of a Christmas tree that someone had tagged with the person’s name. The first sentence in this comment is a lie. Or is it? Please look out for my new book ‘Datawake’ ™, published soon.
    

    

    • 











Related articles


			

	
		
	


			
				


	

		
Strategic Marketing Models by senior Editors of Wikipedia including Stephen Darori

		
					Standard
			


		

		
Deutsch: Zusammenhang zwischen Marketing-Mix, ...
Deutsch: Zusammenhang zwischen Marketing-Mix, 4 Ps, 4Cs und Marketing-Gleichung (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


English: Sustainability Marketing follows six ...
English: Sustainability Marketing follows six key elements: socio-ecological problems, consumer behavior, sustainability marketing values and objectives, sustainability marketing strategies, sustainability marketing mix and sustainability marketing transformation. This picture is giving an overview about the interconnections of the six key elements (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


Strategic Marketing Models by senior Editors of Wikipedia including Stephen Darori


There are many companies especially those in the Consumer Package Goods (CPG) market that adopt the theory of running their business centred around Consumer, Shopper & Retailer needs. Their Marketing departments spend quality time looking for “Growth Opportunities” in their categories by identifying relevant insights (both mindsets and behaviours) on their target Consumers, Shoppers and retail partners. These Growth Opportunities emerge from changes in market trends, segment dynamics changing and also internal brand or operational business challenges.The Marketing team can then prioritize these Growth Opportunities and begin to develop strategies to exploit the opportunities that could include new or adapted products, services as well as changes to the 7Ps. Marketing participants often employ strategic models and tools to analyze marketing decisions. When beginning a strategic analysis, the 3Cs can be employed to get a broad understanding of the strategic environment. An Ansoff Matrix is also often used to convey an organization’s strategic positioning of their marketing mix. The 4Ps can then be utilized to form a marketing plan to pursue a defined strategy. Marketing Mix Modeling is often used to simulate different strategic flexing go the 4Ps. Customer lifetime value models can help simulate long term effects of changing the 4Ps, e.g.; visualize the multi-year impact on acquisition, churn rate, and profitability of changes to pricing. However, 4Ps have been expanded to 7 or 8Ps to address the different nature of services.


The marketing mix is a business tool used in marketing and by marketing professionals. The marketing mix is often crucial when determining a product or brand’s offer, and is often synonymous with the four Ps: price, product, promotion, and place; in service marketing, however, the four Ps have been expanded to the Seven Ps or eight Ps to address the different nature of services.


Integrated marketing communications




Integrated Marketing Communication (IMC) is a term that emerged in the late 20th century regarding application of consistent brand messaging across myriad marketing channels. The term has varying definitions and the differences can play a part in how IMC is viewed and used:




    

  1. The first definition for integrated marketing communication came from the American Association of Advertising Agencies (also 4A’s) in 1989, defining IMC as “an approach to achieving the objectives of a marketing campaign through a well-coordinated use of different promotional methods that are intended to reinforce each other.”[1] The 4A’s definition of IMC recognizes the strategic roles of various communication disciplines (advertising, public relations, sales promotions, etc.) to provide clarity, consistency, and increased impact when combined within a comprehensive communications plan. Basically, it is the application of consistent brand messaging across both traditional and non-traditional marketing channels.
    2. 

  2. The Journal of Integrated Marketing Communication from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University refers to IMC as “a strategic marketing process specifically designed to ensure that all messaging and communication strategies are unified across all channels and are centered around the customer.”[2] IMC is used practically to allow one medium’s weakness to be offset by another medium’s strength, with elements synergized to support each other and create greater impact.[3]
    3. 

  3. A more contemporary definition states, “True IMC is the development of marketing strategies and creative campaigns that weave together multiple marketing disciplines (paid advertising, public relations, promotion, owned assets, and social media) that are selected and then executed to suit the particular goals of the brand.”[4] Instead of simply using various media to help tell a brand’s overall story, with IMC the marketing leverages each communication channel’s intrinsic strengths to achieve a greater impact together than each channel could achieve individually. It requires the marketer to understand each medium’s limitation, including the audience’s ability/willingness to absorb messaging from that medium. This understanding is integrated into a campaign’s strategic plan from the very beginning of planning – so that the brand no longer simply speaks with consistency, but speaks with planned efficacy.[5] This concept inherently provides added benefits that include: a singular/synchronized brand voice and experience, cost efficiencies generated through creativity and production, and opportunities for added value and bonus.
    4. 







In recent times, the concept of four Cs has been introduced as a more customer-driven replacement of four Ps.[1] And there are twofour Cs theories today. One is Lauterborn’s four Cs (consumer, cost, communication, convenience), another is Shimizu’s four Cs (commodity, cost, communication, channel).


 


History


The term marketing mix was coined in an article written by Neil Borden called “The Concept of the Marketing Mix.”[2] He started teaching the term after he learned about it from an associate, James Culliton, who in 1948 described the role of the marketing manager as a “mixer of ingredients”; one who sometimes follows recipes prepared by others, sometimes prepares his own recipe as he goes along, sometimes adapts a recipe from immediately available ingredients, and at other times invents new ingredients no one else has tried.




McCarthy’s Four Ps


The marketer E. Jerome McCarthy proposed a four Ps classification in 1960, which has since been used by marketers throughout the world.





Classification



Category
Definition




Product
A product is seen as an item that satisfies what a consumer demands. It is a tangible good or an intangible service.For example good will for intangible. Tangible products are those that have an independent physical existence. Typical examples of mass-produced, tangible objects are the motor car and the disposable razor. A less obvious but ubiquitous mass-produced service is a computer operating system.Every product is subject to a life-cycle including a growth phase followed by a maturity phase and finally an eventual period of decline as sales falls. Marketers must do careful research on how long the life cycle of the product they are marketing is likely to be and focus their attention on different challenges that arise as the product move.The marketer must also consider the product mix. Marketers can expand the current product mix by increasing a certain product line’s depth or by increasing the number of product lines. Marketers should consider how to position the product, how to exploit the brand, how to exploit the company’s resources and how to configure the product mix so that each product complements the other. The marketer must also consider product development strategies.[1]




Price
the amount a customer pays for the product. The price is very important as it determines the company’s profit and hence, survival. Adjusting the price has a profound impact on the marketing strategy, and depending on the price elasticity of the product, often it will affect the demand and sales as well. The marketer should set a price that complements the other elements of the marketing mix.[1]When setting a price, the marketer must be aware of the customer perceived value for the product. Three basic pricing strategies are: market skimming pricing, market penetration pricing and neutral pricing. The ‘reference value’ (where the consumer refers to the prices of competing products) and the ‘differential value’ (the consumer’s view of this product’s attributes versus the attributes of other products) must be taken into account.[1]




Promotion
all of the methods of communication that a marketer may use to provide information to different parties about the product. Promotion comprises elements such as: advertising, public relations, personal selling and sales promotion.

Advertising covers any communication that is paid for, from cinema commercials, radio and Internet advertisements through print media and billboards. Public relations is where the communication is not directly paid for and includes press releases, sponsorship deals, exhibitions, conferences, seminars or trade fairs and events. Word-of-mouth is any apparently informal communication about the product by ordinary individuals, satisfied customers or people specifically engaged to create word of mouth momentum. Sales staff often plays an important role in word of mouth and public relations (see ‘product’ above).






Distribution(Place)
refers to providing the product at a place which is convenient for consumers to access. Various strategies such as intensive distribution, selective distribution, exclusive distribution and franchising can be used by the marketer to complement the other aspects of the marketing mix.








The seven Ps is an additional marketing model that refers to the already mentioned four Ps, plus ‘Physical evidence’, ‘People’, and ‘Process’:





Classifications



Category
Definition




Physical evidence
elements within the store—the store front, the uniforms employees wear, signboards, etc.




People
the employees of the organization with whom customers come into contact.




Process
the processes and systems within the organization that affects its marketing process.






These latter three factors are not cited nearly as often as the first four.


Lauterborn’s Four Cs


Robert F. Lauterborn proposed a four Cs classification in 1990[6] which is a more consumer-oriented version of the four Ps that attempts to better fit the movement from mass marketing to niche marketing








Four Ps
Four Cs
Definition









Consumerwants and needs


A company will only sell what the consumer specifically wants to buy. So, marketers should study consumer wants and needs in order to attract them one by one with something he/she wants to purchase.










Price is only a part of the total cost to satisfy a want or a need. The total cost will consider for example the cost of time in acquiring a good or a service, a cost of conscience by consuming that or even a cost of guilt “for not treating the kids”. It reflects the total cost of ownership. Many factors affect Cost, including but not limited to the customer’s cost to change or implement the new product or service and the customer’s cost for not selecting a competitor’s product or service












While promotion is “manipulative” and from the seller, communication is “cooperative” and from the buyer with the aim to create a dialogue with the potential costumers based on their needs and lifestyles.It represents a broader focus. Communications can include advertising, public relations, personal selling, viral advertising, and any form of communication between the organization and the consumer.










In the era of Internet, catalogues, credit cards and phones people neither need to go any place to satisfy a want or a need nor are limited to a few places to satisfy them. Marketers should know how the target market prefers to buy, how to be there and be ubiquitous, in order to guarantee convenience to buy.With the rise of Internet and hybrid models of purchasing, Place is becoming less relevant. Convenience takes into account the ease of buying the product, finding the product, finding information about the product, and several other factors








Four Cs: in the Seven Cs Compass Model


(Corporation and consumer -oriented model)


After Koichi Shimizu proposed a four Cs classification in 1973, this was expanded to the Seven Cs Compass Model to provide a more complete picture of the nature of marketing in 1981. It attempts to explain the success or failure of a firm within a market and is somewhat analogous to Michael Porter’s diamond model, which tries to explain the success and failure of different countries economically.




The Seven Cs Compass Model are:



The four elements in the Seven Cs Compass Model are:







“P” category
“C” category
“C” definition




Product
(C2)Commodity
(Original meaning of Latin: Commodus=convenient) : It is not “product out”. The goods and services for the consumers or citizens. Steve Jobs has been making the goods with which people are pleased. It will not become commoditization if a commodity is built from the start.




Price
(C3)Cost
(Original meaning of Latin: Constare= It makes sacrifices) : There is not only producing cost and selling cost but purchasing cost and social cost.




Promotion
(C4)Communication
(Original meaning of Latin:Communis=sharing of meaning) : marketing communication : Not only promotion but communication is important. Communications can include advertising, sales promotion, public relations, publicity, personal selling, corporate identity.




Place
(C5)Channel
(Original meaning is a Canal) : marketing channels. Flow of goods.






The compass of consumers and Circumstances (environment) are:


    

  • (C6)Consumer – (Needle of compass to Consumer)
    • 



The factors related to consumers can be explained by the first character of four directions marked on the compass model. These can be remembered by the cardinal directions, hence the name compass model:



In addition to the consumer, there are various uncontrollable external environmental factors encircling the companies. Here it can also be explained by the first character of the four directions marked on the compass model:



These can also be remembered by the cardinal directions marked on a compass. The Seven Cs Compass Model is a framework in Co-marketing (Symbiotic marketing). It has been criticized for being little more than the four Ps with different points of emphasis. In particular, the seven Cs inclusion of consumers in the marketing mix is criticized, since they are a target of marketing, while the other elements of the marketing mix are tactics. The seven Cs also include numerous strategies for product development, distribution, and pricing, while assuming that consumers want two-way communications with companies.


An alternative approach has been suggested in a book called ‘Service 7’ by Australian Author, Peter Bowman. Bowman suggests a values based approach to service marketing activities. Bowman suggests implementing seven service marketing principles which include value, business development, reputation, customer service and service design. Service 7 has been widely distributed within Australia.


Model & Stages


Similar to the definition of IMC, models of the IMC approach vary according to the source cited. Frequently, models stress the importance of blending various marketing tools to maximize the customer experience and value. IMC models also often emphasize the lack of a specific hierarchy of importance in the IMC stages: all components of the model play an equally important role and a company may or may not choose to immediately implement any or all of the integration strategies.[9]


    

  • Stage one: Awareness: Knowledge of changing business, social, political and cultural trends creates the demand for a new approach to marketing.
    • 

  • Stage two: Image integration: Having a consistent image, message and feel to an organization is crucial. The image reflected in corporate symbols serves as an important element for maintaining consistency in an organization.
    • 

  • Stage three: Functional integration: Analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of each functional area of communication (public relations, event planning, media, etc.), and determining how the different areas can come together to create an effective campaign.
    • 

  • Stage four: Coordinated integration: All communication functions become equal in their potential to influence company marketing efforts and many integration barriers cease to exist.
    • 

  • Stage five: Consumer based integration: The elements of the different communication functions begin to work together. The campaign begins to achieve greater marketing effectiveness because only fully targeted consumers are exposed to the strongest and most effective forms of marketing and media.
    • 

  • Stage six: Stakeholder based integration: Beyond just the customer, there are stakeholders who depend on the positive outcome of marketing campaigns. Companies carefully identify stakeholders, determining who can or will be affected by the success or failure of their campaign. At this stage of integration, the IMC expands from a sales-driven goal to a broader communication goal. This means that a company needs to enhance past marketing efforts through clear, correct and open communication between all parties involved.
    • 

  • Stage seven: Relationship management integration: A fully integrated communication strategy exists that brings customers and stakeholders into direct contact with the business.
    • 



Schultz and Schultz identified four levels of IMC through which organizations appear to progress. These stages are not discrete, finite stages with well-defined boundaries Ultimately, however, to be truly integrated an organization needs to demonstrate competency in the activities and requirements of each of the four levels. 














Four levels of IMC developed by Schultz and Schultz (1998)








    

  • Level 1: Tactical Coordination and Marketing Communications Initial IMC focus is on the tactical coordination of diverse marketing such as advertising, promotion, direct response, public relations, and special events. This level focuses on delivering “one sight, one sound” via marketing communication.
    • 

  • Level 2: Redefining the Scope of Marketing Communication The organization begins to examine communications from the customer’s point of view. Marketing communication begins to give consideration to all sources of brand and company contact a customer has with the product or service. Management broadens the scope of communication activities to encompass and coordinate internal marketing employees, suppliers, and other business partners and align with the existing external communication programs. 
    

    • 

  • Level 3: Application of Information Technology An organization’s application of empirical data using information technology to provide a basis identity, value, and monitor the impact of integrated internal and external communication programs to key customer segments over time. 
    

    • 

  • Level 4: Financial and Strategic Integration The emphasis shifts to using the skills and data generated in the earlier stages to drive corporate strategic planning using customer information and insights. Organizations re-evaluate their financial information infrastructure. 
    

    • 



The Growing Importance of Integrated Marketing Communications


Integration has become an essential concept in marketing because technological advances have changed how business stakeholders interact. Marketing theory that was established during the discipline’s formative years has been overtaken by the complexities of real-time, multimodal, multi directional communication.


A few examples help illustrate the growing importance of integration:


Search marketing: When someone is considering buying a product or service they will often conduct an online search. What they find, on Google and other search engines, as well as information from news sites, review sites, directories, videos and place-based searches, are presented together, so like it or not, there is a level of integration. The online experience will affect their attitudes towards a brand and their behavior. Marketers therefore need to concern themselves with making sure their brand is found ahead of competitors’ and then ensuring their audience has a positive and helpful experience.


Accessibility & convenience: Consumers expect information and services that relate to a brand to be conveniently accessible via its website. For instance when a consumer visits Virgin.com they are able to book a flight, manage their money, top up their mobile phone plan or find up-to-date news about the company. 




Aggregation of information and services: The traditional demarcation between a company, its suppliers and customers has become confused. For instance the Apple iTunes app store aggregates software and information from app makers, along with reviews provided by consumers.  Product promotion, delivery, service and information from many different sources are seamlessly presented together.


Social media: Traditionally businesses were largely in control of their brand communications. Now brand communications are multidirectional as consumers can easily share, comment and create content. Brands can use this to their advantage by creating appealing content. For instance Unilever’s campaign for Dove, The Dove Real Beauty Sketches went viral with over 54 million views on YouTube. 




Growth of mobile: The growing penetration of smartphones with fast internet connectivity means that marketers need to take into consideration integration between the online experience and place-based experiences. For instance when a consumer downloads the Target app they are able to receive coupons to their mobile phone and redeem them at the checkout by presenting the coupon barcode to the cashier.


Marketing activation


F














Marketing




Key concepts






















Promotional contents



















Promotional media







































Marketing activation is the execution of the marketing mix as part of the marketing process. The activation phase typically comes after the planning phase during which managers plan their marketing activities and is followed by a feedback phase in which results are evaluated with marketing analytics.


Depending on the business objective, two types of marketing activation can be used as part of a marketing strategy.


    

  • Brand activation, sometimes called brand engagement which focuses on building a longer term emotional connection between the brand and the customer.
    • 

  • Activation based on direct-response marketing will focus on generating immediate sales transactions.
    • 







Related articles